Monte Carlo Retirement Probability

Markets don't return the average every year. This runs 1,000 random scenarios to estimate the chance your money lasts.

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Success rate

Chance your money lasts
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A Monte Carlo simulation draws a random return each year from a normal distribution with your average and volatility, subtracts an inflation-adjusted withdrawal, and repeats for 1,000 trials. The success rate is the share of trials that finish with money left. Real markets are not perfectly normal and results vary each run, so treat this as an illustration, not a guarantee.

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