See the monthly paycheck your savings can produce, and how many years it lasts with inflation-adjusted withdrawals.
How this is calculated Embed on your siteUpdated October 2026
This calculator answers two questions retirees ask most: how much can I spend each month, and how long will the money last? With the defaults, $800,000 at a 4% withdrawal rate gives a first-year paycheck of $2,667 a month ($32,000 a year). If you raise that amount with 3% inflation every year and the portfolio averages a 5% return, the money lasts about 37 years.
The first year's income is your balance times the withdrawal rate. After that, the dollar amount rises with inflation each year so your spending power stays level, while the remaining balance grows at your expected return. The calculator counts the years until the balance runs out.
For an $800,000 portfolio with 3% inflation, here is how long it lasts at different average returns:
| Withdrawal rate | Monthly paycheck | Lasts at 4% return | Lasts at 5% return | Lasts at 6% return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $2,000 | 42 years | 58 years | 60+ years |
| 3.5% | $2,333 | 35 years | 45 years | 60+ years |
| 4.0% | $2,667 | 30 years | 37 years | 49 years |
| 4.5% | $3,000 | 27 years | 31 years | 39 years |
| 5.0% | $3,333 | 24 years | 27 years | 32 years |
| 6.0% | $4,000 | 19 years | 22 years | 25 years |
Two things stand out. Going from 4% to 5% adds $667 a month but cuts about ten years off the money's life at a 5% return. And the return assumption matters as much as the withdrawal rate, which is why a cautious return is the safer input.
Real returns arrive unevenly. If the market falls hard in your first few years of retirement, you sell more shares to fund the same paycheck, and those shares are not there for the recovery. Two retirees with the same average return can end up very differently depending on the order of good and bad years. This is called sequence-of-returns risk, and it is the main reason the 4% rule is a guideline rather than a promise. The Monte Carlo retirement calculator runs 1,000 market paths to show how often a plan survives.
To find the nest egg a given paycheck needs, work backward with the FIRE calculator. To see how Medicare surcharges can affect higher-income retirees, try the IRMAA calculator.
At a 4% withdrawal rate, about $32,000 a year, or $2,667 a month, rising with inflation. With a 5% average return and 3% inflation, that lasts about 37 years in this projection.
It held up for 30-year retirements in U.S. historical data, but it is not guaranteed. For longer retirements or more caution, many planners start nearer 3.5% or use guardrails to trim spending after bad years.
For retirements of 40 years or more, a starting rate of about 3.25% to 3.5% is common, because the money has to last longer and survive more market cycles.
No. The paycheck shown is a gross withdrawal. Money from traditional retirement accounts is taxed as income, so your spendable amount will be lower. Roth withdrawals are generally tax-free.
That is how the 4% rule is defined, and it is what this calculator assumes. In practice, many retirees skip the raise after a bad market year, which helps the money last.
The projection grows the balance at your expected return and raises each year's withdrawal by inflation. See our methodology page. Educational estimate, not financial advice.